A secret report by a United States intelligence agency warns that an extensive military campaign against Iran is unlikely to succeed in overthrowing the regime, as revealed by the Washington Post.
At the same time, it is emphasized that the existing opposition groups do not appear to have the capacity to take power even after a significant conflict.
The assessment of United States intelligence services highlights the risks of a prolonged and unpredictable war aimed at achieving regime change, while listing key findings:
1) Questionable capability of the opposition: The existing Iranian opposition movements do not appear to have the strength to take control of the country after a United States military operation.
2) Resilience of the regime: Bombings and broad military actions are unlikely to cause the collapse of the Iranian leadership, which will most likely strengthen internal security and control.
3) Limited effectiveness of the attacks: Despite damage to infrastructure, air or ground attacks are not sufficient to impose regime change.
4) Focus on betrayals and defections: Substantial change would require massive defections within the state and military apparatus, something that is not expected at present, according to analyses by ACLED.
The report notes that achieving regime change through military means entails high cost and great uncertainty, making the likelihood of failure far greater than any short term military victory.
This assessment reinforces the image that the Islamic Republic of Iran remains strongly resilient even under intense external pressure, and that efforts to overthrow it through military force may lead to a prolonged conflict without substantial results.
The report was completed shortly before the war
The report, which was completed shortly before the start of the military operation of the United States and Israel on 28 February, evaluated different scenarios of military action, from targeted strikes against the leadership to a large scale campaign.
In all cases, the analysts concluded that the military and religious establishment of Iran possesses mechanisms of succession and stability that can maintain continuity of power even after serious blows.
Resilience of the Iranian power system
According to the assessment of United States intelligence services, even the possible assassination of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, would not cause the collapse of the system.
The succession is expected to be determined by the country’s powerful religious body, the Assembly of Experts, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also plays a significant role.
Behind the scenes, intense political maneuvering is unfolding around the possible successor, with the name of Mojtaba Khamenei at the center of the scenarios, although no official announcement has been made.
According to western security sources, his candidacy is reportedly supported by circles of the Revolutionary Guards, while other powerful figures such as Ali Larijani appear cautious.
The objectives of Washington
At the same time, the president of the United States Donald Trump insists that the military operation, named Operation Epic Rage, aims to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, its naval power and its ability to develop nuclear weapons.
He has even demanded the “unconditional surrender” of Tehran and has implied that he could influence the selection of the country’s future leadership.
However, Iranian officials categorically reject such scenarios.
The president of the Iranian parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that the fate of Iran will be determined exclusively by the Iranian people and not by foreign powers.
High cost and uncertain outcome
The overall assessment of United States intelligence services underlines that a large scale military campaign could lead to a prolonged and unpredictable conflict, without a guaranteed outcome regarding regime change.
As analysts note, the Iranian power system, despite the pressures, remains deeply entrenched and ideologically oriented toward resistance against the United States, a fact that significantly limits the ability of external powers to shape political developments inside the country.
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